The Venezuela Asymmetry
Rare Earths, Bank Defunding, and the Sabbath Cheat Code.
This week in the Laboratory, we are tracking three specific signals: The hidden logic behind the Venezuela move, the de-funding of the banking cabal, and the ultimate productivity hack: doing absolutely nothing for 25 hours.
Let’s dive in.
1. Geopolitics: It Wasn’t Just a Show of Force
What Trump did in Venezuela is clearly more than just muscle flexing. The market views this as a political move; I view it as a supply chain necessity.
To understand the Venezuela move, you have to look at the board through the lens of Rare Earth Minerals and the defense of Taiwan.
The Nvidia Factor It is no secret that AI is now a matter of national security. Nvidia has become the single most critical asset in the American economy. Jensen Huang’s recent visits to the White House weren’t social calls—they were about securing the physical rails of the future.
We are already seeing the “on-shoring” of compute with the Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facilities in Arizona. But chips require raw materials.
The Supply Chain Glitch If China moves on Taiwan, the US loses access to chips and the rare earth processing dominated by the CCP. We learned this lesson the hard way during Covid—when we couldn’t source basic insulin or pharma products due to logistics breakdowns. We cannot afford that vulnerability with AI.
Venezuela happens to hold massive deposits of rare earth minerals (and, obviously, the largest oil reserves in the world).
The Rare Earths: Secure the inputs for the AI supply chain closer to home.
The Oil: Feed the American energy appetite while filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The Monroe Doctrine: Kick foreign adversaries (China, Russia, Iran) out of our hemisphere.
This wasn’t an invasion; it was a hostile takeover of a distressed asset to secure the American supply chain. It is a ruthless, rational business transaction.
2. The Money: Defunding the Cabal
While the media focuses on the geopolitical noise, the real war is happening in the financial plumbing.
Trump is executing a multi-step plan to weaken the traditional banking cartel (JP Morgan, the Fed) while bolstering the “Freedom Assets”: Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and companies like MicroStrategy ($MSTR).
The 10% Cap Strategy I have been hearing from sources that Trump’s plan to cap credit card interest rates at roughly 10% is not just populism—it is a strategic weapon. Credit card interest is a massive revenue stream for traditional banks. By capping it, you starve the beast. You cut off their easy revenue, forcing a de-leveraging of the legacy system.
The Pivot to Stablecoins As the banks get squeezed, the winners will be Stablecoins and Crypto. Trump sees this as a defining battle for financial sovereignty. Watch for policies that favor USD-backed stablecoins as the new rails for global commerce, bypassing the rent-seeking legacy banks entirely.
The Pressure on Powell The pressure is accelerating. Even mainstream outlets are now confirming what the underground has suspected: criminal investigations may be looming for the Federal Reserve leadership.
Read the signal: CNN: Federal prosecutors criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
3. The Asset: Bitcoin & Yield
Speaking of Venezuela, rumors are swirling that they have been sitting on their own sovereign reserve of Bitcoin. If true, it validates the thesis we have held for years.
I am essentially irresponsibly long Bitcoin. I believe it is not just the most important asset of my lifetime, but a singularity in technological history. It is an internet-native commodity with the properties of gold, but with perfect transparency and instant transferability.
As the world loses trust in bureaucrats and money printers, Bitcoin is the only exit valve.
The Altcoin Distraction I do not share this belief for 99% of the crypto market.
HBAR: I am long this asset (full disclosure: I helped create it) because of its enterprise utility.
The Majors: I see value in Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid.
Everything else: Mostly noise. I keep my focus on the signal.
Generating Yield on Bitcoin If you have a large Bitcoin position, the next logical question is: How do I make this productive? For years, yielding BTC carried massive counterparty risk (remember Celsius?). But we are now entering the institutional era.
Lending: We are seeing institutional counterparties paying ~4% APY for clean Bitcoin liquidity.
Covered Calls: Selling out-of-the-money calls can generate predictable weekly/monthly cash flow.
A Warning on DeFi: Unless you have a crypto-native operator in your Family Office who understands smart contract risk, stay away from on-chain DeFi yield. The asymmetry is in holding the asset, not risking it for an extra 2%.
4. The Machine: Energy & The Sabbath
The Energy bottleneck As an office, we are obsessed with Energy. Energy is the “long pole in the tent.” We will have enough chips. We will have enough data centers. We do not have enough electricity to power the compute required for AGI.
While we transition toward SMRs (Small Modular Reactors), I see massive opportunity in “Stranded Assets”—off-grid power generation that can be converted into mini-energy campuses. This is where physical infrastructure meets digital demand.
The Ultimate Asymmetric Bet: The Sabbath We talk about “The Machine” as biology, but sometimes the best thing for the machine is to turn it off.
One of the best ROI decisions I have made is unplugging for the traditional Jewish Sabbath. The Protocol: From sundown Friday to sundown Saturday (25 hours). The Rule: No screens. No work. No phone.
There is a saying: “It is not the Jews who kept the Sabbath, but the Sabbath that kept the Jews.”
In a hyper-digital world, going fully analog is a cheat code. It allows for deep reading, family time, and pure rest. I have found that a single 25-hour Sabbath provides more restoration than a standard two-day weekend spent doom-scrolling.
Give it a try. The emails will still be there on Sunday.
The Library
Reading: Skin in the Game by Nassim Taleb. I’m re-reading this now. The central thesis is vital for anyone managing capital: Never trust an advisor, politician, or CEO who doesn’t have downside risk if they are wrong. Symmetry is the only law that matters.
Worth a Click: Why my 2026 resolution is to start drinking again (GQ) A counter-intuitive take on health and social connection in a sterile world.
Cheers to the Freedom Fighters.
— Jordan Fried